Whatever you think of Rick Santorum's recent anti-snob, anti-JFK rhetoric, it didn't hurt him with evangelicals in Michigan. According to the exit poll, he pulled in 51 percent of them, up six points from the final PPP survey. What lost him the state was that non-evangelicals edged away from him by three points. Meanwhile Mitt Romney was picking up four points in both groups. In the end, Santorum's totals for evangelicals and non-evangelicals were 51 percent and 30 percent; Romney's, 35 percent and 45 percent. Given that the overall evangelical vote in the state remained at the same 39 percent as four years ago, that was enough to put Romney over the top.
Those numbers suggest that come next week's Super Tuesday contests, Santorum should have no trouble picking up Tennessee and Oklahoma, where the evangelical portion of the GOP primary electorate was 73 percent and 72 percent respectively in 2008. But unfortunately for him, he couldn't manage to make it onto the ballot in Virginia, where, with an evangelical vote of 46 percent, he'd have had a shot. And Georgia appears to be Newt's last hurrah. So the key state will be Ohio, where the evangelical vote was 44 percent last time around. The latest polling shows Santorum up by a significant margin, but a week's barrage of negative ads by Romney and his Super PAC could change that. If he loses Ohio, Santorum's history.