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Ohio evangelicals on the move?

With the eyes of the nation focused on the polls in Ohio, it's worth checking in on what's happening with evangelicals, who represent one-third of the electorate in the state. And we've got three weeks of polling by the same company with which to do so.

In its Oct. 5-8 canvas, which had Obama ahead by a single point (45-44), SurveyUSA showed evangelicals favoring Mitt Romney over the president by 57-37--a healthy margin, but significantly smaller than the 71-27 margin by which John McCain prevailed in 2008.

A week later, with Obama now ahead by three points (45-42), evangelical support for Romney hadn't budged, but had dropped for the president had dropped by five points, 57-32. 

And in the latest SurveyUSA poll, taken Oct. 20-23 and showing the president still ahead by three points (47-44), Romney has upped his portion of the evangelical vote to 60 percent while Obama has held steady at 32 percent. So over the three weeks, evangelicals have increased their margin of support for the GOP challenger by eight points.

Meanwhile, over the same three weeks non-evangelicals have steadily increased their support for the president, from 50 percent to 53 percent to 56 percent. Romney's support, on the other hand, has shrunk slightly, from 38 percent to 36 percent. The non-evangelical margin of support for Obama has thus increased by eight point, exactly the same by which evangelical support has increased for Romney.

In 2008, McCain got 36 percent of the non-evangelical vote in Ohio, while Obama got 63 percent of it. The bottom line is that non-evangelicals are looking to split their vote between the Democratic and Republican candidates at just about the same rate as they did last time. Evangelicals, however, remain significantly less supportive of Romney than they were of McCain. The big question is whether Ralph Reed and the pastors can move the numbers.


  1. We found something which we believe all those who consider themselves Christians should keep in mind when they vote.  There is something the Mormons call the White Horse Prophecy.  Mormons will tell you it is no big deal, but there are elders in the LDS church who do believe it, and it seems to fit.  The White Horse Prophecy basically says that the US will reach a point where it is crumbling, the “Constitution hanging by a thread,” and a Mormon hero will appear to save the day, the “White Horse,” who will be elected president.  This is said by Mormons (in fact it is attributed to be said by Joseph Smith, the founder of the Mormons) to be the first White Horse in Revelations, in the Bible, the one which appears before the Red Horse.  The troubling thing about this prophecy is that, as anyone who has studied Revelations will tell you, this White Horse is interpreted as being the Anti-Christ.  It seems Joseph Smith either did not know his Bible, or something even more sinister.  Why has the LDS church never outright denied or rejected this prophesy?  Considering the implications, you would think they would have.

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